Will North Korea launch a ballistic missile or publicly declare a weapons test?

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77%
Stable · last 24h
Resolved: No
Results Aug 3YES if the U.S. Department of Defense's official website publishes an official press release or news article on or before 11:59:59 PM Eastern Time on August 2, 2026 that explicitly names Iran or Iranian territory as the location of one or more U.S. strikes occurring on or after 12:00 AM Eastern Time on July 27, 2026. If the Department of Defense only refers to operations 'in the region', 'near Iran', or similar wording without explicitly naming Iran or Iranian territory, resolve NO. If such a DoD announcement is posted and then fully retracted on the DoD's official website before the resolution time, resolve NO.
How markets are built and settled77%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 77% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: The supplied, independent news reports consistently describe a pause/cancellation of U.S. strikes on Iran during the contested week and do not report U.S. strikes on Iranian soil in that interval. PBS (Jul 27) reported that “neither the U.S. nor Iran reported carrying out any attacks for three days,” NPR (Jul 27) says the U.S. military “has paused its airstrikes on Iran,” and OPB (Jul 28) describes Iranian missiles ending a brief pause but does not report U.S. strikes inside Iran in response. CNN’s live updates on Aug 2 note that no strikes were reported overnight into Sunday and that planned U.S. strikes were called off. When U.S. strikes are reported in the supplied material during this window (for example, strikes on July 29), they were against Iran-aligned militias in Iraq or were naval/blockade actions, not strikes on targets located within internationally recognized Iranian territory. No source in the provided evidence reports U.S. forces striking targets on Iranian soil between 2026-07-27 and 2026-08-02, so the correct settlement based on the evidence is NO.
Source: cnn.comSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledno way they're gonna admit that! the pentagon loves its ambiguities. i'm betting on a big ol' NO! 🤷♂️

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