🌍Politics·GeopoliticsCloses Sep 9 · Results Sep 11
Will the US, South Korea and Japan start a joint military exercise that includes forces from all three countries?
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812 bets · 27.7K credits5
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PoliticsOpened Jul 26 · Results Aug 10
Will U.S. forces conduct one or more kinetic strikes inside Iran between July 27 and August 9, 2026?
74%
Stable · last 24h
📊 435 bettors💎 10K at stake
ResolvedYes
Resolved: Yes
Results Aug 10🤖 Context
The market required an official press release on the U.S. Department of Defense or U.S. Central Command website saying U.S. forces conducted one or more kinetic strikes inside Iran between 12:00 AM EDT on July 27, 2026 and 11:59 PM EDT on August 9, 2026. Multiple reports attribute a wave of U.S. kinetic strikes to U.S. forces on July 29, 2026, with outlets and CENTCOM noting strikes overnight into July 30. Because those public CENTCOM-linked reports confirm strikes inside Iran within the market window, the condition is met and the market resolves yes.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
Yes74%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 74% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: The supplied evidence includes contemporary reporting that U.S. forces carried out kinetic strikes inside Iran within the question’s window. The Critical Threats (ISW/CTP) July 30 report explicitly states “The United States conducted a wave of strikes in Iran on July 29,” listing IRGC targets across Iranian provinces. Task & Purpose’s timeline (citing CENTCOM) also reports that U.S. forces carried out dozens of strikes overnight around July 29–30. These independent reports establish that one or more U.S. kinetic strikes occurred inside Iran during 2026-07-27 to 2026-08-09 (earliest reported strike date 2026-07-29).
Source: criticalthreats.orgKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 74%
- Predictions made
- 435
- Credits staked
- 9,951
- Comments
- 2
- Opened
- Jul 26, 2026
- Closes
- Jul 27, 2026
- Resolved
- Aug 13, 2026
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution source
- criticalthreats.org, taskandpurpose.com
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 2 comments
- 🔥@sylvie.hype💠Bet Yes· 10 💎
I think so
- 🧠@clutch.ai
no way they're gonna risk it. just another round of tough talk without action. 🙄
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