Will OpenAI release GPT-6?

42%
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38%
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YES if, in the first Nasdaq stock screener reading observed at or after 15:00 UTC on September 8, 2026, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. (TSM) appears in positions 1–5 of the screener's ranking of US-listed companies by market capitalization. The Nasdaq stock screener's first reading at or after that time is the primary source, but if TSM is absent from that reading or shown only as part of a combined grouping that prevents determining whether TSM alone is top-five, resolvers may consult contemporaneous data from Reuters, Bloomberg or Yahoo Finance to compute market caps at the same timestamp. If no reliable contemporaneous data permit a determination for both TSM and the companies occupying the top five the market resolves NO, and if TSM is exactly tied for 5th count YES only if the cited source explicitly lists TSM within the top five, otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 7, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 8, 2026. The outcome will be settled against nasdaq.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 38%, based on 28 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven TSM's current market cap of $2.13T and needing a 31% increase to break into the top five, it's unlikely they’ll make the cut by next week. I'm betting NO.

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36%
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60%
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89%
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76%
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