Will tropical wave No. 25 move southwest off the coast of Jalisco and stop affecting Mexico on August 9?

🤖 Context

YES if the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (CONAGUA/SMN) bulletin published at 08:00 (Central Mexico time, UTC−05:00) on August 9, 2026 explicitly states that "onda tropical núm. 25" has moved southwest off the coast of Jalisco and is no longer affecting Mexican territory. YES can also be proven by two or more independent national or international news outlets quoting the SMN or another official meteorological agency reporting the same. If the SMN or a quoted official source uses ambiguous language (for example "se aleja pero sigue afectando") or otherwise indicates the wave is still affecting Mexican territory, the market resolves NO. Otherwise the market resolves NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 9, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 9, 2026. The outcome will be settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 73%, based on 3 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

73%

Predictions made

3

Credits staked

121

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 7, 2026

Closes

Aug 9, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 9, 2026

Resolution source

smn.conagua.gob.mx

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 9, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 9, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 73% and NO 27%, based on 3 predictions and 121 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx once the outcome is known.

Is “Will tropical wave No. 25 move southwest off the coast of Jalisco and stop affecting Mexico on August 9?” real-money betting?

No. “Will tropical wave No. 25 move southwest off the coast of Jalisco and stop affecting Mexico on August 9?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.