Will tropical cyclone Dolly make landfall in Mexico's mainland or islands?

🤖 Context

YES if the tropical cyclone officially designated 'Dolly' (the same system named in the SMN "Aviso de Ciclón Tropical" issued at 09:00 local on August 27, 2026) makes landfall on Mexican sovereign territory, mainland or islands, no later than August 31, 2026, otherwise NO. Landfall means the centre of Dolly's primary circulation crossed the coastline as reported. Resolution according to Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN/CONAGUA) advisories, with ordinary corroboration accepted from other recognized meteorological centers or major news agencies that explicitly state Dolly made landfall.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Sep 1, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 1, 2026. The outcome will be settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 59%, based on 2 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

59%

Predictions made

2

Credits staked

20

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 27, 2026

Closes

Sep 1, 2026

Expected resolution

Sep 1, 2026

Resolution source

smn.conagua.gob.mx

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Sep 1, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Sep 1, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 59% and NO 41%, based on 2 predictions and 20 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx once the outcome is known.

Is “Will tropical cyclone Dolly make landfall in Mexico's mainland or islands?” real-money betting?

No. “Will tropical cyclone Dolly make landfall in Mexico's mainland or islands?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.