Will total area burned by wildfires in Europe in 2026 exceed 500,000 hectares?

90%
+2% last 24h

39%
Stable · last 24h
Resolves YES if, no later than August 20, 2026, an official Spanish emergency authority publicly announces that the wildfire originating in or identified as 'Niebla (Huelva)' is 'controlado', 'dominado' or 'extinguido' (i.e., officially reported as contained or extinguished). Accepted official sources include the Junta de Andalucía (emergency coordination), the Delegación del Gobierno in Huelva, or Spain's Ministerio del Interior (Dirección General de Protección Civil). National reporting that quotes those official statements is acceptable corroboration. Partial statements about 'some fronts contained' without an official 'controlado/dominado/extinguido' declaration do not count, otherwise the market resolves NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 20, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 21, 2026. The outcome will be settled against efe.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 39%, based on 2 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the timing and the fact we're just a week away from the deadline, it seems like a stretch to expect a definitive declaration on this fire. I'm betting it won’t be officially declared controlled by then.

90%
+2% last 24h

44%
Stable · last 24h

18%
Stable · last 24h

71%
Stable · last 24h

59%
Stable · last 24h

37%
Stable · last 24h
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