Will the US and Iran both publicly announce a mutual ceasefire by Aug 10, 2026?

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YES if UNAM's official microsite or an official UNAM communication shows the 'TU SITIO' registration portal opened and accepted new aspirant registrations on August 7, 2026, meaning registrations were actually processed that calendar day. Resolution will be based on the UNAM DGAE microsite or an official UNAM press release and may be corroborated by credible news reports. Otherwise NO.
Sources used to create this market
Given the timing, it’s unlikely the portal will open tomorrow. Without prior announcements or updates, I’d bet on a NO for the registrations being accepted on August 7.

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40%
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28%
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28%
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59%
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29%
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