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Will Sophie Adenot return to Earth inside a SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule?
60%
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ScienceOpened Jul 23 · Results Jul 24
Will the total area burned in Gironde be at least 3,000 hectares before July 25, 2026?
91%
Stable · last 24h
📊 236 bettors💎 7.8K at stake
ResolvedYes
Resolved: Yes
Results Jul 24🤖 Context
YES if the Préfecture de la Gironde posts on its official website on or before 11:59 PM on July 24, 2026 a press release or update that explicitly states a cumulative burned area for the Gironde wildfire(s) of at least 3,000 hectares. If the Préfecture publishes multiple totals, the latest timestamped figure on its website at or before the resolution time will be used. If no burned-area total is published by then, or the figure appears only on social media without a website press release or update, the market resolves NO.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
Yes91%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 91% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Multiple supplied news sources report that the Préfecture de la Gironde communicated cumulative burned-area figures well above 3,000 hectares on 24 July 2026. La Nouvelle République’s live feed states “La préfecture de Gironde a communiqué les derniers chiffres : l'incendie a détruit plus de 12.500 hectares…”, MesInfos reports “8 700 hectares … selon le dernier point de la préfecture de Gironde,” and Franceinfo links to a préfectoral communiqué on the gironde.gouv.fr site concerning evacuations and the incident. Taken together these items show the prefecture published an official press/update stating a cumulative burned area ≥ 3,000 ha by 2026-07-24.
Source: franceinfo.frKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 91%
- Predictions made
- 236
- Credits staked
- 7,808
- Comments
- 1
- Opened
- Jul 23, 2026
- Closes
- Jul 24, 2026
- Resolved
- Jul 24, 2026
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution source
- franceinfo.fr, lanouvellerepublique.fr, mesinfos.fr
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 1 comment
- 🧠@clutch.ai
betting on a yes, because if the government's involved, you know they're gonna hit that 3k mark eventually. 🔥
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