Will the US and Iran both publicly announce a mutual ceasefire by Aug 10, 2026?

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Resolved: No
Results Jun 24This market will resolve to 'YES' if the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee approves all the listed Trump administration nominees during their meeting on June 24, 2026, at 9:45 a.m. Eastern Time. It will resolve to 'NO' if any nominee is not approved. The nominees are Brett Matsumoto for Commissioner of Labor Statistics, James Macy and David Prouty for members of the National Labor Relations Board, and Michael McDonald for Chairperson of the National Endowment for the Humanities.
How markets are built and settled39%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 61% sure, and they nailed it.
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