Will total area burned by wildfires in Europe in 2026 exceed 500,000 hectares?

87%
+2% last 24h

40%
Stable · last 24h
YES if the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) or the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issues any public advisory (regular, intermediate, or special) that names the system “Tropical Storm <Name>” or “Hurricane <Name>” no later than August 16, 2026. 'Potential Tropical Cyclone' products that do not include a named tropical-storm/hurricane advisory do not count. Public reports that quote those CPHC/NHC advisories are also acceptable.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 13, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 17, 2026. The outcome will be settled against foxweather.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 40%, based on 0 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledWith just over 35 hours to the deadline, the chances of this disturbance being named as a tropical storm or hurricane seem solid given the current conditions. Expect an advisory soon.

87%
+2% last 24h

25%
Stable · last 24h

26%
-7% last 24h

76%
-6% last 24h

81%
+10% last 24h

46%
-1% last 24h
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