Will Mercedes be first in the constructors' standings after the Dutch GP on August 23?

94%
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56%
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YES if the FIA Tribunal of Appeals publicly issues an official written decision no later than August 25, 2026 that explicitly upholds at least one aspect of appeals lodged by Red Bull or McLaren, and in that same decision or in an FIA or Formula 1 update published on August 25, 2026 the FIA publishes an amended official Final Classification for the 2026 Monaco Grand Prix listing a different driver in first, second, or third than the classification published immediately prior to that ruling. If a decision is published on August 25, 2026 but it does not change any top‑3 finishing position in the FIA’s official final classification, the market resolves NO. The authoritative sources are the FIA Tribunal of Appeals decision and the FIA or Formula 1 official race classification, with major independent news outlets acceptable as corroboration.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 25, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 25, 2026. The outcome will be settled against espn.com.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 56%, based on 31 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven that the decision hasn't been made yet and there's only a few days left, it's unlikely the FIA will announce any changes to the podium. This market will resolve NO.

94%
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50%
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74%
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47%
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29%
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20%
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