Will Russian forces carry out an air, missile, or drone strike that hits the SBU headquarters in Kyiv?

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Resolved: No
Results Aug 1YES if the U.S. Department of State hosts the complete signed text of the U.S.–Saudi agreement for cooperation concerning civil uses of nuclear energy on state.gov in English or Arabic, as a downloadable PDF or HTML, on or before 5:00 PM Eastern Time on August 1, 2026. A press release or summary without the full executed agreement does not count. Posts only to social media or only to third-party sites do not qualify, otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settled39%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 61% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: None of the supplied evidence contains the complete signed agreement text as a downloadable PDF or as HTML. The U.S. Department of Energy press release (2026-07-22) announces the 123 agreement was signed and says the agreement “will now be transmitted to Congress for review,” not that the full signed text was posted publicly. Independent reporting in the supplied pool explicitly states the text had not been released (BBC, 2026-07-23: “Text from the deal has not been made public”; Carnegie Emissary Q&A, 2026-07-23: “the administration has not yet released the full text”). The Federal Register entry (Presidential Determination published 2026-07-28) is present in the evidence but is a Presidential Determination document and does not provide the full signed agreement text in the supplied content. No source in the provided evidence shows a downloadable PDF or HTML of the complete signed agreement in English or Arabic by the deadline. Based on the supplied documents, the complete signed text was not publicly available by 5:00 PM ET on 2026-08-01.
Source: energy.govSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledno way they're dropping that agreement on time. this is gonna be buried deeper than my gym motivation. 😂

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