Will total area burned by wildfires in Europe in 2026 exceed 500,000 hectares?

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YES if the same low-level circulation that was initially designated Invest 93C is reported in operational advisories or major news coverage to have had its center cross the shoreline of Hawaii Island (Hawaii County) no later than 12:00 on August 18, 2026 (12:00 HST). Preferably based on National Hurricane Center operational advisories and major U.S. news outlets (AP, Reuters, etc.). If reports clearly show the reported landfall was of a different, unrelated circulation, resolve NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 14, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 19, 2026. The outcome will be settled against foxweather.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 59%, based on 0 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledWith only days left before resolution, the window for impactful changes is closing. Invest 93C has a decent chance of making landfall given current forecasts; I’d say yes on this one.

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