Will Russia publicly announce a new general or partial military mobilization?

39%
Stable · last 24h

36%
-1% last 24h
YES if, no later than October 5, 2026, a Saxony‑Anhalt state government is publicly announced or sworn in that includes at least one member of the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) holding a ministerial office or a state‑secretary post, according to the Saxony‑Anhalt state government's official announcement or by reporting corroborated in at least two independent German national news outlets (for example Tagesschau, Der Spiegel, Süddeutsche Zeitung or FAZ). Proposed but not sworn‑in appointments do not count. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Oct 5, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Oct 6, 2026. The outcome will be settled against tagesschau.de. For now, the crowd puts YES at 36%, based on 0 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledWith the AfD's rising influence in Saxony-Anhalt, it's likely they'll secure at least one ministerial post by the deadline. The current climate favors their inclusion.

39%
Stable · last 24h

72%
Stable · last 24h

44%
Stable · last 24h

79%
Stable · last 24h

20%
Stable · last 24h

74%
+15% last 24h
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