Will the Falcon 9 for Transporter‑18 clear the pad and lift off from Vandenberg on October 1?

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Resolved: Yes
Results Sep 29The market requires that the Starship flight launching between 12:15 UTC and 18:15 UTC on 28 September 2026 must deploy at least 26 Starlink Version 3 satellites into orbit to resolve yes. Starship Flight 14 (Ship 41) lifted off on 28 September 2026 at about 12:48 to 12:50 UTC and was publicly reported to have deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites into orbit. Because that launch occurred inside the specified window and 26 V3 satellites were confirmed deployed, the market resolves as yes.
How markets are built and settled71%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 71% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Multiple independent, credible sources in the supplied evidence report that Starship Flight 14 (Ship 41) launched on 28 September 2026 (launch around 8:48–8:50 a.m. ET = ~12:48–12:50 UTC, within the 12:15–18:15 UTC window) and deployed 26 Starlink Version 3 satellites into orbit. Reuters: “Once in orbit, Starship deployed 26 next-generation Starlink satellites… ‘All 26 Starlink V3 operational satellites deployed and operating nominally,’ Musk wrote on X.” CNN: “All 26 operational Starlink satellites were deployed.” ABC News: “The mission successfully placed 26 Starlink satellites into orbit.” SpaceX’s own Flight 14 page and live timeline in the evidence also show a payload-deploy sequence. The reports are consistent and uncontradicted in the provided pages, so the market question is resolved YES.
Source: reuters.comSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledThat's how it is
Yes!
Given the tight timeline and SpaceX's track record, I expect at least 26 Starlink V3 satellites to be deployed successfully during this launch.

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