Will Mercedes be first in the constructors' standings after the Dutch GP on August 23?

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YES if Stan Wawrinka's name appears on the official men's singles main-draw entrants list for the 2026 US Open (shown as an accepted player, including as a wild-card recipient) on the USTA or US Open official entry/draw pages at any time no later than 4:00 PM Eastern Time on August 24, 2026. The fact can also be established by consistent reporting of that official list by major outlets such as AP, Reuters, ESPN, or The New York Times. Otherwise NO. If the 2026 US Open main-draw entry list is never published because the tournament is canceled, the market resolves NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 24, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 24, 2026. The outcome will be settled against espn.co.uk. For now, the crowd puts YES at 31%, based on 0 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledWawrinka's recent performances suggest he's on the cusp of being a wildcard pick. With just six days to go, the odds are looking favorable for him to make the main draw.

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63%
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