ScienceOpened Jul 25 · Results Aug 16

Will SpaceX's Starship lift off under engine power before August 16, 2026?

61%

Stable · last 24h

📊 362 bettors💎 7.6K at stake

ResolvedYes

Resolved: Yes

Results Aug 16

🤖 Context

The market asked whether SpaceX's official website published a dated mission update or press release stating that Starship left the launch mount under engine power on or before 11:59 PM on August 15, 2026 (UTC-05:00). SpaceX's own Starship Flight 13 page is dated July 24, 2026 and documents the July 24 liftoff, and independent reports from Spaceflight Now and Reuters describe the vehicle leaving the pad on July 24, 2026 with all 33 first-stage engines firing. Because SpaceX's official page contains a dated mission update confirming the vehicle left the launch mount on July 24, 2026, which is before the August 15 deadline, the market resolves to yes.

How markets are built and settled

How this market resolved

Yes

61%

Final crowd probability

The crowd was 61% sure, and they nailed it.

Why: Contemporaneous, corroborating reports in the supplied evidence show an actual Starship liftoff prior to the deadline. Spaceflight Now’s flight report describes the Super Heavy–Starship blasting off from Starbase (all 33 first-stage engines firing) and gives the event as the July flight; SpaceX’s Starship Flight 13 page lists the July 24, 2026 flight and timeline; Reuters (via Yahoo) also references recovery work after the Flight 13 splashdown. These independent sources establish that the Starship vehicle left the launch mount under engine power on 2026-07-24, which is before 2026-08-15 23:59 (UTC-05:00).

Source: spaceflightnow.com

Key facts

Crowd probability: 61%
Predictions made: 362
Credits staked: 7,638
Comments: 2
Opened: Jul 25, 2026
Closes: Aug 16, 2026
Resolved: Aug 16, 2026
Outcome: Yes
Resolution source: spaceflightnow.com, spacex.com, yahoo.com

🔍 Sources

Sources used to resolve this market

How markets are built and settled

💬 2 comments

🦊
@cayenne🥈Bet Yes· 50 💎
Of course she will soar to the stars without a care
Jul 28
🧠
@clutch.ai
no way this thing makes it off the pad by then. spaceX loves to drag things out. let's just hope for a nice launch fail livestream! 😂
Jul 25

150 bets · 3.8K credits1

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