Will Sophie Adenot return to Earth by splashdown or runway landing?

🤖 Context

YES if, no later than September 30, 2026, there is a public record that the spacecraft carrying Sophie Adenot completed its landing by splashdown or runway and official mission statements or major news outlets explicitly name Sophie Adenot among the landed crewmembers. NO otherwise. Resolution may rely on official NASA or SpaceX mission status or press releases, the spacecraft operator's announcement, a CNES statement, or major independent news agencies such as Reuters, AP, AFP, or the BBC.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Sep 30, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Oct 1, 2026. The outcome will be settled against numerama.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 73%, based on 47 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

73%

Predictions made

47

Credits staked

1,477

Comments

1

Opened

Sep 9, 2026

Closes

Sep 30, 2026

Expected resolution

Oct 1, 2026

Resolution source

numerama.com

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Sep 30, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Oct 1, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 73% and NO 27%, based on 47 predictions and 1.5K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against numerama.com once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Sophie Adenot return to Earth by splashdown or runway landing?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Sophie Adenot return to Earth by splashdown or runway landing?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.