Will Sophie Adenot perform at least one spacewalk?

🤖 Context

YES if NASA or ESA official EVA logs, NASA mission-status updates, or equivalent official agency documentation, or contemporaneous reporting by multiple independent major news outlets, show Sophie Adenot was listed as an EVA crew member and conducted an EVA on any date no later than September 30, 2026 inclusive. An EVA means documented suit egress from the ISS airlock and performance of extravehicular tasks. Planned but aborted EVAs with no suit egress do not count, and robotic or internal operations are not EVAs.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 31, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 30, 2026. The outcome will be settled against numerama.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 94%, based on 395 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

94%

Predictions made

395

Credits staked

12,483

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 31, 2026

Closes

Aug 31, 2026

Expected resolution

Sep 30, 2026

Resolution source

numerama.com

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 31, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Sep 30, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 94% and NO 6%, based on 395 predictions and 12.5K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against numerama.com once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Sophie Adenot perform at least one spacewalk?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Sophie Adenot perform at least one spacewalk?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.