Will Sophie Adenot complete three ISS spacewalks within a 21-day span?

🤖 Context

YES if, no later than September 17, 2026, NASA or ESA official EVA logs and agency press releases, corroborated by ordinary news reporting, show Sophie Adenot completed three distinct ISS extravehicular activities (EVAs) and the official published end datetime of the first and the third of those EVAs fall within a single contiguous 21-calendar-day interval. Aborted or cancelled EVAs where no crewmember exited the airlock do not count. If official end datetimes conflict, the agencies' published start/stop datetimes control.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 28, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 18, 2026. The outcome will be settled against numerama.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 75%, based on 19 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

75%

Predictions made

19

Credits staked

675

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 27, 2026

Closes

Aug 28, 2026

Expected resolution

Sep 18, 2026

Resolution source

numerama.com

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 28, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Sep 18, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 75% and NO 25%, based on 19 predictions and 675 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against numerama.com once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Sophie Adenot complete three ISS spacewalks within a 21-day span?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Sophie Adenot complete three ISS spacewalks within a 21-day span?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.