Will Sophie Adenot be the EVA lead on an all‑female ISS spacewalk?

🤖 Context

YES if, no later than September 17, 2026, authoritative mission records or an agency press release show an ISS extravehicular activity during which Sophie Adenot is explicitly identified as the EVA lead and every person who exited the ISS airlock for that EVA was female. Otherwise NO. Resolution will be based on official mission records, for example NASA EVA summaries, ESA press releases, or ordinary news reports of those records.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 28, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 18, 2026. The outcome will be settled against numerama.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 63%, based on 15 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

63%

Predictions made

15

Credits staked

437

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 27, 2026

Closes

Aug 28, 2026

Expected resolution

Sep 18, 2026

Resolution source

numerama.com

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 28, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Sep 18, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 63% and NO 37%, based on 15 predictions and 437 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against numerama.com once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Sophie Adenot be the EVA lead on an all‑female ISS spacewalk?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Sophie Adenot be the EVA lead on an all‑female ISS spacewalk?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.