Will Shishaldin reach "WATCH" (heightened alert) or higher?

🤖 Context

YES if the United States Geological Survey's Volcano Hazards Program records Shishaldin's Volcano Alert Level as 'WATCH' (heightened alert) or a higher alert at any time on or after 00:00 UTC on September 12, 2026 and no later than 00:00 UTC on September 15, 2026. The USGS Volcano Hazards Program (Volcano Updates page and VNS/HANS2 notices) is the preferred authoritative record, and independent reputable news reports that explicitly cite a USGS notice are acceptable as corroboration. If the USGS public record clearly identifies a different named volcanic feature than the 'Shishaldin' named in the title, the USGS identification for that feature determines settlement.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Sep 12, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 15, 2026. The outcome will be settled against volcanoes.usgs.gov. For now, the crowd puts YES at 18%, based on 78 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

18%

Predictions made

78

Credits staked

2,505

Comments

1

Opened

Sep 11, 2026

Closes

Sep 12, 2026

Expected resolution

Sep 15, 2026

Resolution source

volcanoes.usgs.gov

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Sep 12, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Sep 15, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 18% and NO 82%, based on 78 predictions and 2.5K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against volcanoes.usgs.gov once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Shishaldin reach "WATCH" (heightened alert) or higher?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Shishaldin reach "WATCH" (heightened alert) or higher?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.