Will Carlos Alcaraz win the US Open men's singles?

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Resolved: No
Results Aug 3YES if the official National Bank Open website publishes a players/entries page or press release that explicitly lists "Serena Williams" as a singles main-draw entrant (either as an accepted player or as a wildcard) by 11:59 PM on August 2, 2026 Toronto time. If she is named only in a non-entrant capacity (for example as an honorary guest) resolve NO. If the National Bank Open site is unavailable at the resolution moment the resolver will check Tennis Canada's official website for the same explicit entrant listing, otherwise resolve NO.
How markets are built and settled37%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 63% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: The official National Bank Open (Tennis Canada) coverage for Aug 2, 2026 (the tournament’s live/results and news pages) lists the published main-draw lineups and identifies the tournament wildcards used on day one (e.g. Venus Williams, Katherine Sebov, Cadence Brace, etc.) but does not include Serena Williams. Independent coverage that published the tournament wildcards/main-draw lists (Flashscore, and Canadian Press coverage republished on CKPGToday) likewise lists the players/wildcards and does not include Serena. One report (L’Équipe) mentioned an invitation/discussion was being explored, but the tournament’s published entry/draw and multiple independent news reports dated on or before 2026-08-02 show Serena was not listed as an accepted main-draw entrant or wildcard by 11:59 PM (America/Toronto) on 2026-08-02.
Source: nationalbankopen.comSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledNo. There is no confirmation that Serena Williams will compete in the singles draw of the 2026 National Bank Open in Toronto.
not a chance! she’s probably busy collecting awards or just enjoying life. i mean, who wants to battle it out on court in 2026? 😂

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