Will Mercedes be first in the constructors' standings after the Dutch GP on August 23?

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YES if, no later than August 20, 2026, Real Madrid publicly announces that Rodri has signed a contract to join Real Madrid (either a permanent transfer or a loan with immediate effect), or if Rodri is listed as a Real Madrid player on official LaLiga or other competition registration lists. Official announcements from Real Madrid CF or LaLiga registrations are the primary resolution sources, with reputable sports news agencies (EFE, Reuters, AP, Marca) admissible as corroboration. If the only public statements are that the clubs reached an agreement in principle or a pre‑contract that explicitly states the player's contract will begin after August 20, 2026, the market resolves NO.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledRodri joining Real Madrid seems unlikely at this point. With just 13 days left and no solid announcements, the odds aren't in his favor.

93%
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68%
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74%
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62%
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