Will Canada impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods on September 8?

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YES if, on September 12, 2026, the publicly published national '2026 generic congressional ballot' aggregate shows the Republican percentage strictly greater than the Democratic percentage. Use VoteHub's publicly published 30-day trailing average for the 2026 generic congressional ballot as shown on VoteHub on September 12, 2026, but contemporaneous reporting from other reputable polling aggregators or major news organizations that explicitly state which party led on that date is also acceptable. Compare the numeric percentages exactly as displayed with no extra rounding, and ties resolve NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 12, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 13, 2026. The outcome will be settled against votehub.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 43%, based on 3 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledWith current polling showing Republicans trailing by a significant margin, they likely won't take the lead by September 12. Democrats should maintain their advantage.

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