Will total area burned by wildfires in Europe in 2026 exceed 500,000 hectares?

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YES if the Junta de Castilla y León issues and publishes an explicit, formal order, decree, or resolution on the Junta's official website or in the Boletín Oficial de Castilla y León (BOCYL) that orders the closure of public early‑childhood, primary, secondary or vocational schools in at least one province of Castilla y León for the entire calendar day August 15, 2026 and cites high temperatures or the heatwave as the reason. Otherwise NO. A non‑binding recommendation or orders issued only by individual schools do not count, and corroborating reports from EFE, El País, RTVE or other major Spanish outlets are acceptable as support.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 14, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 15, 2026. The outcome will be settled against efe.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 30%, based on 2 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven that it's already the 14th and no formal closure order has been issued yet, I doubt schools will close tomorrow. The Junta needs to act fast to meet the requirements.

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37%
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22%
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75%
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71%
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36%
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