Will North Korea launch a ballistic missile or publicly declare a weapons test?

47%
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51%
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YES if the PSOE's voting-intention percentage is greater than or equal to 25.0% in the topmost poll shown in the "Main voting-intention table" on the Wikipedia page Opinion polling for the next Spanish general election as it appears at 00:00 CEST on September 22, 2026. If multiple polls share the latest fieldwork end date, use the poll listed first and the PSOE percentage reported for that poll. If the topmost poll does not show a PSOE percentage, use the pollster's official published result for that poll. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 21, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 21, 2026. The outcome will be settled against en.wikipedia.org. For now, the crowd puts YES at 51%, based on 4 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledWith the PSOE currently polling at 24.9%, it's a tough call. They need a significant boost in just two weeks, which isn't likely given current trends.

47%
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42%
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42%
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79%
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42%
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47%
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