Will the U.S. and Iran publicly say they've concluded a bilateral agreement on managing the Strait of Hormuz?

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YES if on September 1, 2026 President Claudia Sheinbaum publicly delivers and presents a 'Segundo Informe de Gobierno' in Mexico City, evidenced by an official press release or livestream from the Presidency of the Republic or the National Palace, or by contemporaneous reporting from multiple major national news outlets stating the President publicly delivered the Informe on that date. Otherwise NO. A private internal meeting or only a written submission without a public presentation does not count. An explicit government statement postponing or cancelling the public delivery for that date resolves NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 1, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 2, 2026. The outcome will be settled against eluniversal.com.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 57%, based on 0 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledIt's unlikely Sheinbaum will deliver this report publicly. With just 12 days to go and no signs of a formal announcement, the odds are against it happening.

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39%
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52%
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34%
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17%
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