Will Popocatépetl produce at least one exhalation that emits ash?

🤖 Context

YES if, no later than 10:00 on August 17, 2026, a publicly available bulletin, advisory, or statement from CENAPRED, SMN/CONAGUA, UCOL‑CUEV, or a mainstream Mexican or international news outlet explicitly reports that Popocatépetl produced one or more exhalations that emitted volcanic ash (explicitly described as "ceniza" or "ash") during the period from 10:00 on August 16, 2026 through 10:00 on August 17, 2026. Otherwise NO. Reports that say the emissions were only steam or gas without ash count as NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 16, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 17, 2026. The outcome will be settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 44%, based on 11 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

44%

Predictions made

11

Credits staked

265

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 16, 2026

Closes

Aug 16, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 17, 2026

Resolution source

smn.conagua.gob.mx

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 16, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 17, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 44% and NO 56%, based on 11 predictions and 265 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Popocatépetl produce at least one exhalation that emits ash?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Popocatépetl produce at least one exhalation that emits ash?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.