Will Popocatépetl produce ashfall reported in the next 'Aviso Especial'?

🤖 Context

YES if an SMN 'Aviso Especial' for Popocatépetl issued no later than 9:00 AM on August 14, 2026 (Central Mexico time), or an official SMN, CENAPRED, or UCOL‑CUEV bulletin published the same day, explicitly states that ashfall (Spanish "ceniza" or "caída de ceniza") was observed or reported in one or more municipalities in State of Mexico, Mexico City, Tlaxcala, Puebla, Hidalgo, or Veracruz and attributes it to Popocatépetl. If the bulletin only reports satellite detection of ash aloft without any statement of ground‑level ashfall, resolve NO. Otherwise resolve NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 14, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 14, 2026. The outcome will be settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 51%, based on 8 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

51%

Predictions made

8

Credits staked

180

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 14, 2026

Closes

Aug 14, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 14, 2026

Resolution source

smn.conagua.gob.mx

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 14, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 14, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 51% and NO 49%, based on 8 predictions and 180 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Popocatépetl produce ashfall reported in the next 'Aviso Especial'?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Popocatépetl produce ashfall reported in the next 'Aviso Especial'?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.