Will Popocatépetl emit volcanic ash in an exhalation or explosion?

🤖 Context

YES if, no later than 09:00 on September 9, 2026 (inclusive), an official agency bulletin (SMN/CONAGUA, CENAPRED, or another named monitoring body) or at least two independent Mexican national or regional news outlets explicitly report that Popocatépetl produced an exhalation or explosion that included volcanic ash, using language like 'emisión de ceniza', 'expulsión de ceniza', or 'ash emission'. Reports that state only gas or steam with no ash do not count. Uncorroborated social-media posts by themselves do not qualify.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Sep 9, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 9, 2026. The outcome will be settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 35%, based on 7 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

35%

Predictions made

7

Credits staked

190

Comments

0

Opened

Sep 8, 2026

Closes

Sep 9, 2026

Expected resolution

Sep 9, 2026

Resolution source

smn.conagua.gob.mx

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Sep 9, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Sep 9, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 35% and NO 65%, based on 7 predictions and 190 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Popocatépetl emit volcanic ash in an exhalation or explosion?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Popocatépetl emit volcanic ash in an exhalation or explosion?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.