Will Apple’s CEO transition to John Ternus occur on schedule (September 1, 2026)?

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YES if the daily maximum temperature recorded in Paris for the local calendar day September 1, 2026 is greater than or equal to 23.0 °C according to Open-Meteo. If multiple public meteorological services publish different numeric daily maxima, Open-Meteo's reported value will be used as the tiebreaker. NO otherwise.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 29, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 2, 2026. The outcome will be settled against api.open-meteo.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 83%, based on 122 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledWith a forecasted max of 23.1°C, Paris will likely hit the mark. Open-Meteo's track record suggests we'll see at least 23°C on September 1.

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58%
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57%
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94%
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40%
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59%
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