Will OpenAI release GPT-6?

🤖 Context

YES if Kalshi marks the exact ticker KXGPT-OPEN-26SEP16 as "finalized" with an official outcome of YES. Kalshi treats that as YES if OpenAI publicly releases, or publicly announces and makes available to the public or to paying customers outside of a closed beta, a model called "GPT-6" or greater no later than September 16, 2026. Otherwise NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Sep 16, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 16, 2026. The outcome will be settled against kalshi.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 52%, based on 397 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

52%

Predictions made

397

Credits staked

9,235

Comments

3

Opened

Sep 3, 2026

Closes

Sep 16, 2026

Expected resolution

Sep 16, 2026

Resolution source

kalshi.com

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Sep 16, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Sep 16, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 52% and NO 48%, based on 397 predictions and 9.2K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against kalshi.com once the outcome is known.

Is “Will OpenAI release GPT-6?” real-money betting?

No. “Will OpenAI release GPT-6?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.