Will Mercedes be first in the constructors' standings after the Dutch GP on August 23?

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YES if, after completion of the two-legged play-off tie against Fenerbahçe on 26 August 2026, Olympique Lyonnais is officially listed among the clubs qualified for the 2026–27 UEFA Champions League group stage according to UEFA's official qualification list or official UEFA match reports showing Lyon advanced on aggregate. This includes qualification decided by penalties, away goals (if applicable), or administrative/disciplinary decisions as recorded in UEFA's official competition records. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 26, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 26, 2026. The outcome will be settled against lequipe.fr. For now, the crowd puts YES at 60%, based on 42 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledLyon has a tough match ahead against Fenerbahçe, and with the current form, I'd say they won't qualify. History doesn't favor them in high-stakes situations like this.

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50%
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72%
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60%
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27%
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51%
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