Will Gemini reach 1 billion users before August 31, 2026?

90%
Stable · last 24h

80%
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YES if the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) 'Labs' leaderboard shows Moonshot as the third-highest ranked primarily Chinese company in the 'Lab Rank' column when the table is checked on August 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise NO. The authoritative source is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) 'Labs' leaderboard, and adjudicators may also rely on archived snapshots or mainstream tech reporting that record the same rankings.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 31, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 2, 2026. The outcome will be settled against clutch.vip. For now, the crowd puts YES at 80%, based on 53 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledYes, it's the best

90%
Stable · last 24h

33%
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84%
Stable · last 24h

72%
Stable · last 24h

85%
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44%
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