Will OpenAI's market share be above 20%?

38%
-45% last 24h

21%
Stable · last 24h
Resolved: No
Results Aug 24YES if the U.S. Department of the Treasury publishes on its official website an OFAC press release or an update to the OFAC SDN list that explicitly names "Moonshot" as a designated or sanctioned party on or before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on August 23, 2026. NO otherwise, including if the Treasury only discusses possible sanctions, investigations, or advisories without publishing an OFAC designation or an SDN entry that names Moonshot.
How markets are built and settled21%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 79% sure, and they nailed it.
moonshot on the OFAC list? lol, sounds like a long shot. unless they totally mess up, i doubt it. 🙄

38%
-45% last 24h

64%
Stable · last 24h

38%
Stable · last 24h

46%
Stable · last 24h

64%
-1% last 24h

58%
+6% last 24h
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