PoliticsOpened Jul 21 · Results Aug 4

Will Marine Le Pen lead Édouard Philippe in the national first-round poll on August 5, 2026?

94%

Stable · last 24h

📊 4610 bettors💎 133.7K at stake

ResolvedYes

Resolved: Yes

Results Aug 4

🤖 Context

YES if Marine Le Pen's reported national first-round percentage is strictly greater than Édouard Philippe's in the single most recent French national first-round poll published on or before 00:00 on August 5, 2026 (CEST), according to the MieuxVoter 'presidentielle2027' GitHub repository. If multiple entries share the same latest publication date, use the entry with the later fieldwork end date, and if still tied use the pollster name that is last in ASCII order. If the chosen entry does not provide numeric first-round percentages for both candidates, if the chosen poll reports identical percentages, or if the repository is inaccessible at resolution time, the market resolves NO.

How markets are built and settled

How this market resolved

Yes

94%

Final crowd probability

The crowd was 94% sure, and they nailed it.

Why: Extracted condition: Marine Le Pen's national first-round % must be strictly greater than Édouard Philippe's in the single most-recent French national first-round poll published on or before 2026-08-05T00:00:00+02:00 from the MieuxVoter 'presidentielle2027' repository. Supplied data identifies the selected poll as ELABE (fieldwork to 2026-07-10) as the most-recent poll as of the market window and reports numeric first-round percentages: Marine Le Pen 35% and Édouard Philippe 16.5%. 35% > 16.5%, so the condition is satisfied and the market resolves YES.

Source: github.com