Will Amazon Leo have 400 or more satellites in orbit by Aug 31, 2026?

80%
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41%
Stable · last 24h
YES if on or before September 7, 2026 the Government of Spain publishes an official instrument that explicitly names both "Manzanedo de Valdueza" and "Bouzas" and declares them as a "zona gravemente afectada por emergencia de protección civil" or uses the equivalent phrase "zona catastrófica", for example a decree in the Boletín Oficial del Estado or an official Government of Spain press release. Mainstream Spanish news coverage is acceptable as corroboration. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 6, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 8, 2026. The outcome will be settled against efe.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 41%, based on 6 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the timeline and the need for an official declaration, it seems unlikely. The government's track record suggests they won't act decisively by the deadline; I'm betting on NO here.

80%
+1% last 24h

49%
Stable · last 24h

24%
Stable · last 24h

32%
Stable · last 24h

69%
Stable · last 24h

77%
-1% last 24h
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