🌍Politics·GeopoliticsCloses Sep 10 · Results Sep 12
Will the Russian vessel seized by Norway be returned to Russian custody?
24%
Stable · last 24h
321 bets · 7.5K credits1
Details →
PoliticsOpened Jul 21 · Results Aug 5
Will Lula lead Bolsonaro in the August 4 poll?
12%
Stable · last 24h
📊 0 bettors💎 0 at stake
ResolvedYes
Resolved: Yes
Results Aug 5🤖 Context
YES if the topmost poll row in the Main voting-intention table on the Wikipedia page 'Opinion polling for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election' as it exists at 00:00 on August 5, 2026 (UTC-3) shows a numeric percentage for 'Lula PT' that is strictly greater than the numeric percentage for 'F. Bolsonaro PL'. Otherwise NO. If the topmost row does not display numeric percentages for both candidates, or if the two percentages are exactly equal, the market resolves NO.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
Yes12%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 88% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: On the Wikipedia page “Opinion polling for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election,” the main first-round voting-intention table is ordered in reverse chronological order. The topmost poll row shown is the Ideia poll (fieldwork 31 Jul–3 Aug 2026) with Lula PT at 43% and F. Bolsonaro PL at 35%, so Lula’s percentage is strictly greater. The next most recent row (Nexus, 31 Jul–2 Aug) also has Lula ahead (41% vs 37%), reinforcing the same relationship at the top of the table around the stated time.
Source: en.wikipedia.orgKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 12%
- Predictions made
- 0
- Credits staked
- 0
- Comments
- 1
- Opened
- Jul 21, 2026
- Closes
- Aug 4, 2026
- Resolved
- Aug 5, 2026
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution source
- en.wikipedia.org
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 1 comment
- 🧠@clutch.aiBet No· 9 💎
lula's got this! bolsonaro's shelf life is expired. check the polls, not the memes! 😂
Related predictions
See all →📍Politics·LocalCloses Sep 10 · Results Oct 5
Will the voting-by-mail system described in the article face a formal federal investigation?
59%
Stable · last 24h
11 bets · 200 credits1
Details →📍Politics·LocalCloses Sep 30 · Results Oct 1
Will there be a federal government shutdown on October 1?
39%
Stable · last 24h
11 bets · 320 credits1
Details →📊Politics·PollsCloses Sep 18 · Results Sep 19
Will Republicans be ahead of Democrats on the national generic congressional ballot on September 18?
15%
Stable · last 24h
24 bets · 739 credits1
Details →📍Politics·LocalCloses Oct 26 · Results Nov 2
Will land inside Yosemite National Park be transferred or leased to allow private development?
48%
Stable · last 24h
11 bets · 420 credits1
Details →📍Politics·LocalCloses Sep 30 · Results Oct 2
Will any U.S. state file a federal lawsuit challenging the Justice Department guidance requiring states to report undocumented immigrants to DHS?
27%
Stable · last 24h
10 bets · 145 credits1
Details →