Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

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88%
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Resolved: Yes
Results Aug 23The market decides by the FIA official starting grid or the FIA official race classification for the 2026 Dutch Grand Prix at Zandvoort, and it is a yes if either document lists Liam Lawson as a starting or starting‑classified driver for a team whose name contains 'Red Bull' or 'Red Bull Racing'. The official starting grid shows Liam Lawson in P8 with the team name listed as 'Red Bull', and the official race classification for the event dated August 23, 2026 shows him in P7 with the team name 'Red Bull'. Because both official documents list Lawson driving for a team called 'Red Bull', the condition is met and the market resolves yes.
How markets are built and settled88%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 88% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: The supplied official Jolpica/Ergast API documents show Liam Lawson listed with a Red Bull constructor entry. The qualifying (starting-grid) classification lists Lawson P8 with Constructor 'Red Bull', and the official final race classification (race date 2026-08-23) lists Lawson P7 with Constructor 'Red Bull'. These official documents therefore satisfy the condition.
Source: api.jolpi.caSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledYes, he will be present. Isak is injured.
With just a few days to go and no clear indication that Lawson will be in the Red Bull seat, it's unlikely he'll be listed for the Dutch GP.

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