Will Mercedes be first in the constructors' standings after the Dutch GP on August 23?

94%
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77%
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YES if the FIA official starting grid or the FIA official race classification for the 2026 Dutch Grand Prix at Zandvoort lists Liam Lawson as a starting or starting-classified driver driving for Red Bull, where the team name in the official document contains 'Red Bull' or 'Red Bull Racing'. Otherwise NO. Authoritative sources are the FIA starting grid or race classification or the official Formula 1 race report, and contemporaneous reporting from major motorsport outlets may be used as corroboration. If the Grand Prix is not held and no official starting grid or official classification is published, the market resolves NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 23, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 23, 2026. The outcome will be settled against espn.com.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 77%, based on 30 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledWith just a few days to go and no clear indication that Lawson will be in the Red Bull seat, it's unlikely he'll be listed for the Dutch GP.

94%
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80%
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51%
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77%
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37%
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40%
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