Will Kilauea return to "NORMAL" (back to normal)?

🤖 Context

YES if the USGS Volcano Hazards Program's official Volcano Alert Level for Kilauea is set to "NORMAL" at any time after 00:00 on September 13, 2026 and no later than 00:00 on September 16, 2026, according to the USGS Volcano Hazards Program. Otherwise the market resolves NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Sep 13, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 16, 2026. The outcome will be settled against usgs.gov. For now, the crowd puts YES at 21%, based on 31 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

21%

Predictions made

31

Credits staked

797

Comments

1

Opened

Sep 12, 2026

Closes

Sep 13, 2026

Expected resolution

Sep 16, 2026

Resolution source

usgs.gov

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Sep 13, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Sep 16, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 21% and NO 79%, based on 31 predictions and 797 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against usgs.gov once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Kilauea return to "NORMAL" (back to normal)?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Kilauea return to "NORMAL" (back to normal)?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.