ScienceOpened Jul 22 · Results Jul 26

Will Kilauea reach "WATCH" (heightened alert) or higher before July 26, 2026?

51%

Stable · last 24h

📊 30 bettors💎 533 at stake

ResolvedNo

Resolved: No

Results Jul 26

🤖 Context

YES if the USGS Volcano Hazards Program lists Kilauea's Volcano Alert Level as "WATCH" (heightened alert) or "WARNING" at any time from 00:00 UTC on July 23, 2026 up to but not including 00:00 UTC on July 26, 2026, otherwise NO. If USGS status information is unavailable at resolution time, use the first subsequent official USGS update, and note that a USGS notice timestamped exactly 00:00 UTC on July 26, 2026 is outside the outcome window and does not count.

How markets are built and settled

How this market resolved

51%

Final crowd probability

The crowd was 51% sure, and they got it wrong.

Why: Extracted condition: Did USGS list Kilauea's Volcano Alert Level as WATCH or WARNING at any time t with 2026-07-23T00:00:00Z <= t < 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z? Observations (from the supplied USGS feed retrieved 2026-07-26 06:01 UTC): 'Kilauea: ADVISORY — level unchanged since 2026-07-16 03:06:24 UTC' (latest notice timestamped 2026-07-25T18:38:59Z). Because the feed states the level was unchanged since 2026-07-16 (which is before the window start), the alert level was ADVISORY throughout the entire window. ADVISORY is below WATCH, so Kilauea did not reach WATCH or WARNING during the window. Therefore the correct resolution is NO.

Source: usgs.gov