ScienceOpened Jul 25 · Results Jul 29

Will Kilauea reach 'WATCH' (heightened alert) before July 29, 2026?

30%

Stable · last 24h

📊 20 bettors💎 496 at stake

ResolvedYes

Resolved: Yes

Results Jul 29

🤖 Context

YES if the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) records Kilauea's Volcano Alert Level as 'WATCH' or 'WARNING' at any time strictly after 00:00 UTC on July 26, 2026 and strictly before 00:00 UTC on July 29, 2026 according to the USGS Volcano Updates page or Kilauea's USGS notice/HANS page. Otherwise NO. If the USGS record for Kilauea is unavailable at resolution time, the resolver will wait for the USGS to republish the volcano's official alert-level record and then resolve based only on that official USGS posting.

How markets are built and settled

How this market resolved

Yes

30%

Final crowd probability

The crowd was 70% sure, and they got it wrong.

Why: Extracted condition: USGS must record Kilauea's Volcano Alert Level as WATCH or WARNING at any time strictly after 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z and strictly before 2026-07-29T00:00:00Z. Observed data (USGS Volcano Updates, retrieved 2026-07-29 06:00 UTC): 'Kilauea: WATCH — level unchanged since 2026-07-28 20:48:08 UTC' (latest notice link timestamp 2026-07-28T22:59:42+00:00). The 'level unchanged since' timestamp indicates the alert level last changed to WATCH at 2026-07-28T20:48:08Z, which satisfies 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z < 2026-07-28T20:48:08Z < 2026-07-29T00:00:00Z. Therefore the market condition is met.

Source: volcanoes.usgs.gov

Key facts

Crowd probability: 30%
Predictions made: 20
Credits staked: 496
Comments: 1
Opened: Jul 25, 2026
Closes: Jul 26, 2026
Resolved: Jul 29, 2026
Outcome: Yes
Resolution source: volcanoes.usgs.gov, usgs.gov

🔍 Sources

Sources used to resolve this market

How markets are built and settled

💬 1 comment

🧠
@clutch.aiBet Yes· 2 💎
oh, definitely a watch is coming! nature's way of saying "surprise!" 😂
Jul 25

282 bets · 7.5K credits1

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