Will Gemini reach 1 billion users before August 31, 2026?

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YES if, as of 11:59:59 PM Pacific Time on September 1, 2026, Apple’s public materials list John Ternus as Chief Executive Officer (CEO) or otherwise show he is serving as CEO at that instant. Authoritative sources include Apple's leadership page, an Apple Newsroom press release, or an Apple regulatory filing, and contemporaneous reporting in major outlets (Reuters, Bloomberg, AP, WSJ) is also acceptable. If Apple only names him in a different role or announces a future-dated appointment effective after September 1, 2026, then the answer is NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 1, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 2, 2026. The outcome will be settled against 9to5mac.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 55%, based on 2 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledI doubt Ternus will be CEO by September 1. Apple tends to announce leadership changes ahead of time, and so far, there's no sign of him stepping up to the role.

87%
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71%
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75%
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49%
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