Will total area burned by wildfires in Europe in 2026 exceed 500,000 hectares?

86%
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57%
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YES if the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issues an official advisory or intermediate advisory that classifies the system first designated Invest 91L as a Tropical Depression, Tropical Storm, or Hurricane at any time no later than 18:00 on August 13, 2026. If the NHC absorbs 91L into another system, the market is YES if that same disturbance originally labeled 91L is later classified. Otherwise the market is NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 12, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 13, 2026. The outcome will be settled against foxweather.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 57%, based on 1 prediction.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledWith just two days until the deadline and the NHC's track record on these systems, I'm expecting 91L to get classified as a Tropical Depression. Odds are good for a yes here.

86%
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59%
Stable · last 24h

67%
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23%
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30%
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