Will tropical cyclone Karina reach Saffir‑Simpson Category 4 intensity?

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This market resolves YES if the center of the tropical cyclone named Lowell crosses the coastline of any Hawaiian island at any time no later than September 7, 2026, as reported by NOAA's National Hurricane Center or the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. It also resolves YES if at least two major independent news organizations explicitly report Lowell made landfall and cite NHC/CPHC or Hawaii state or county emergency officials. If the cyclone is renamed or absorbed before any crossing, it resolves YES only if the same continuous cyclone identified in NHC/CPHC advisories or contemporaneous official statements made landfall by the deadline. Otherwise it resolves NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 8, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 8, 2026. The outcome will be settled against foxweather.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 57%, based on 1 prediction.
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