Will the U.S. and Iran publicly say they've concluded a bilateral agreement on managing the Strait of Hormuz?

13%
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53%
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Resolves YES if a formal written license request in the name "Hugo Éric Flores" is filed with or recorded by the Chamber of Deputies (Mesa Directiva or Oficialía de Partes). The filing must either be visible in the Chamber of Deputies' public records or be reported as filed by two or more independent Mexican national news organizations by no later than August 31, 2026. A public announcement of intent, a social-media-only claim, or a press statement by Flores that is not a formal filing does not count.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 1, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 1, 2026. The outcome will be settled against comunicacionsocial.diputados.gob.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 53%, based on 3 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledWith just 11 days left, it's unlikely Flores will formally file for leave, especially given the lack of prior indications. The odds are against seeing an official request by the deadline.

13%
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44%
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46%
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35%
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24%
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27%
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