Will Great Sitkin be put on 'WARNING' (top alert, eruption imminent)?

🤖 Context

YES if the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Volcano Hazards Program publicly sets Great Sitkin Volcano's Volcano Alert Level to 'WARNING' at any point after 00:00 on August 22, 2026 and no later than 00:00 on August 25, 2026, as reported by the USGS or by mainstream outlets that explicitly cite the USGS. Otherwise NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 22, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 25, 2026. The outcome will be settled against usgs.gov. For now, the crowd puts YES at 23%, based on 48 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

23%

Predictions made

48

Credits staked

1,244

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 21, 2026

Closes

Aug 22, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 25, 2026

Resolution source

usgs.gov

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 22, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 25, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 23% and NO 77%, based on 48 predictions and 1.2K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against usgs.gov once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Great Sitkin be put on 'WARNING' (top alert, eruption imminent)?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Great Sitkin be put on 'WARNING' (top alert, eruption imminent)?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.