Will DeepSeek's market share be above 23.5%?

41%
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66%
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Resolved: Yes
Results Aug 2YES if Google announces and rolls out “Ask YouTube” broadly to general public users (not just limited tests) on or before July 31, 2026; NO if rollout remains restricted past that date.
How markets are built and settled66%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 66% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: An official TeamYouTube community post dated 2026-07-06 (Support thread ID 448540943) explicitly states “Ask YouTube is now available on desktop devices in the US” and describes availability to signed-in viewers in the U.S. aged 13+ (English, desktop), which removes the earlier Premium-only restriction announced at I/O. Independent coverage (TechWyse, 2026-07-10) corroborates the July 6 expansion to all signed-in U.S. desktop users. No supplied sources contradict that rollout before the July 31, 2026 cutoff. Therefore, by July 31, 2026 Google had announced and rolled out Ask YouTube so it was broadly available to general (signed-in) public users in the U.S., not limited to tests.
Source: support.google.comSources used to resolve this market
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41%
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63%
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39%
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77%
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86%
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87%
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