Will Gemini reach 1 billion users before August 31, 2026?

84%
+2% last 24h

50%
Stable · last 24h
YES if, at any time no later than September 4, 2026, Google publicly and officially discontinues or disables the Google Assistant on consumer mobile phones. Evidence must be an official Google support article, Google blog post, Google press release, or a change on Google's official Android/Assistant support or Play Store pages that states Assistant is removed, deprecated, or no longer available on phones and directs users to use Gemini for phone voice control. If Google limits the announcement to a pilot or to non-consumer or enterprise-only devices, the market resolves NO. Otherwise the market resolves NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 4, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 4, 2026. The outcome will be settled against arstechnica.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 50%, based on 47 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGoogle's not cutting the Assistant anytime soon. With nearly three weeks left, there's been no official word on discontinuation; looks solid for the Assistant's survival until at least September.

84%
+2% last 24h

60%
Stable · last 24h

93%
Stable · last 24h

45%
Stable · last 24h

77%
Stable · last 24h

28%
Stable · last 24h
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